06-04-2026
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What are the implications of the current war on real estate in Lebanon?
This war is different from previous wars because it is part of a larger regional conflict. It has revealed a new concept that I call “Equality of Risk.”
The prevailing narrative used to be that the Gulf countries—Dubai in particular—were the safe haven, while Lebanon was the volatile exception. However, this war may have revealed a different reality to investors: regional conflicts are no longer distant from any economic hub.
Our expectation is that Lebanese real estate will withstand the war, while we cannot necessarily expect the same for Dubai’s real estate, for several reasons:
Dubai’s real estate market is highly influenced by global sentiment, and most investors there are foreigners. In contrast, the majority of investors in Lebanese real estate are Lebanese, who are connected to their properties in ways that go beyond purely financial considerations.
In addition, real estate in Lebanon is largely debt-free (unlike Dubai). Therefore, there is no financial pressure on property owners in Lebanon. As a result, the market is characterized by waiting and observation rather than panic selling at discounted prices.
Finally, property prices in Lebanon had not yet returned to their pre-2019 economic crisis levels. This means that a price increase after the war would be expected rather than surprising. On the other hand, Dubai’s real estate prices were at record highs before the war, making a price correction due to the conflict a very plausible scenario.
Of course, we hope that real estate investment in Dubai will not be affected by the current war and will maintain its value.
However, in our view, the greatest chances of resilience—and perhaps even growth after the war—belong to Lebanese real estate compared to other markets in the region.
