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As 2024 comes to a close, and we are starting the new year 2025 – let us have a recap about real estate in Lebanon in the past year.

The main characteristics of real estate market in 2024 remains that:

-        no loans are available on the market and hence buyers are full-cash buyers

-        We are in a secondary market; sellers are individual sellers as developers are still reluctant from starting new real estate projects

-        Real Estate Prices keep on rising – yet in a shy manner; we are still below 2019 prices by at least 20% to 35% depending on the areas.

The year started with hopes of economic growth and positive outlook on real estate in Lebanon in general. As a matter of fact, we have witnessed a strong demand in the first half of the year and transactions at JSK benefited from a nice growth year over year for the first part of the year.

Come summer, and the increased fear from war outlook began to cripple the real estate market. Nonetheless transaction numbers were still healthy – despite the fact that they were less than the expected summer boom where Lebanese expatriates are here.

And then in September, war drums were too loud and events started unfolding. In no time, Lebanon was under full-fledged war where the capital suburb was bombarded daily and different parts of the capital were threatened and hit occasionally. Despair was the denominating factor on all levels, mental and economical. However, this meant a demand for properties in the “safer zone” area namely in Metn and Kesrouane and even in the capital Beirut in areas such as Achrafieh. It was not expected and yet even during war months, real estate transactions kept materializing both in October and in November at a relatively normal pace. December was not a great month on real estate in Lebanon despite the fact that a cease-fire was reached.

If we look year over year, real estate transactions did not decline YOY (at least at JSK); yet the expected growth of 15% to 20% shrunk to almost 5% to 10% due to war impact in Q4.

The outlook for 2025 is positive and yet people are cautious at this stage; it is well-known that a boom is usually expected in a post-war world and prices are usually expected to rise. As a matter of fact, many sellers are putting on hold at the moment the decision to sell, waiting for the impact of the post-cease fire era and the possibility of presidential elections in early 2025. As the real estate market is expected to boom as well in 2025, it remains highly contingent on the political stability in the country.

The results of the war on the Lebanese economy were devastating and yet if there is really a possibility of reconstruction coupled with new political stability – this may bring an immediate positive outcome to the real estate market. January is expected to bring many answers on the outlook of real estate market in Lebanon in 2025; In January, the 2-month period of cease-fire will come to an end and we will know what is next!; In January as well, we will know whether or not a president shall indeed materialize; both matters will be of the utmost impact in Lebanese economy in 2025 and of course on Lebanese real estate market.

And hence, as Lebanese let us wish for a positive outlook in January as it will have a lot of impact on the 2025 outlook in general.